Filtering by Category: Five-Minute Friday

AI’s Putting Recent Grads Out of Work; Here’s How to Get Hired Anyway!

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Computer science/engineering grads had an employment advantage (see chart) that, since ChatGPT's release, has disappeared. Is A.I. to blame? Here's what the data say and what new grads (or anyone!) can do about it:

THE EMPLOYMENT LANDSCAPE
• NY Fed: unemployment for recent computer-science grads (22-27) sits at 7.0%, and computer engineering at 7.8% (roughly on par with fine arts and anthropology grads!)
• Compare that to ~5.8% for recent grads overall and ~4% for the whole US workforce.
• Eighteen-year-olds are voting with their feet: US undergrad CS enrolment fell 11% in 2025; computer programming fell a stunning 26%.
• Demand is shrinking too: Handshake postings are down ~50% from their 2022 peak, and Revelio Labs data suggest entry-level software and data-analysis postings have dropped as much as 67%.

IS A.I. TO BLAME?
• "Yes" camp: A 2025 Stanford University study found employment for 22-25-year-olds in A.I.-exposed jobs dropped 13% since 2022, while older workers held steady. The Dallas Fed replicated it... and the decline comes from juniors never being hired, not layoffs.
• "Not so fast" camp: Google economists found posting declines were just as steep for senior workers and predate ChatGPT. A Fed study of 1M+ firms found "null effects." Their take: high interest rates and a post-pandemic hangover, with A.I. as a convenient scapegoat.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
1. Stop competing on raw code. The human edge is now system design, architecture and deciding what to build in the first place.

2. Pick a domain. "A.I. engineer" is a common résumé; "A.I. engineer who worked alongside a hospital team for two summer internships" is a short list.

3. Build a public portfolio. Substantive GitHub repos and a Kaggle project beat CVs sent into the void.

4. Get fluent with agentic tooling, e.g., RAG, model evaluation, multi-agent orchestration. PwC found A.I.-skilled workers earn a 56% wage premium (!!!)

5. Lean on your network. Referrals and warm intros are crushing mass (often GenAI-produced) applications in this market.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

Tokenmaxxing vs AI Hardware Bottlenecks

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Humans (like Reinforcement Learning algos) can "reward hack": "Tokenmaxxing" being a perfect example, after employers started using "number of tokens" consumed as a proxy for developers' productivity.

Even if humans weren't engaging in this pointless time-, money- and energy-consuming behavior, however, demand for A.I. compute is so vast that everyone's scrambling to to make more available. Alas, four tricky hardware bottlenecks face us:

1. GPUs:
• NVIDIA data-center GPU lead times now run 36–52 weeks, with Blackwell chips sold out through mid-2026.
• The real choke point isn't fabrication: It's TSMC's "CoWoS" advanced packaging, which is sold out through 2026. Nvidia alone has locked up ~60% of CoWoS capacity through 2027.

2. High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM):
• Demand has quintupled since 2023, and only three companies (SK hynix, Samsung and Micron) make it.
• All three are sold out well into 2026 and new HBM factories take 18–24 months to come online.

3. CPUs:
• As workloads shift toward agentic AI, the CPU:GPU ratio jumps from ~1:12 (for GenAI-only chatbots) to 1:1.
• Intel's CFO says the server-CPU shortfall "starts with a B" — billions in unmet demand so server CPU prices are up 10–20% in just the past couple of months.

4. Electricity: Hyperscaler build-outs are now gated by grid interconnect (18–36 months) and transformer lead times.

THE BIG MISMATCH
• The top 5 hyperscalers alone (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle) are on track for ~$725B in combined 2026 capex.
• That's roughly 6x the hyperscalers' 2022 spend, with ~75% going to A.I. infrastructure.
• Hardware suppliers, however, have grown capex by only ~50%.... a 6x increase in demand met by only a 50% increase in supply is a big mismatch!

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Demand will continue to be high but I'm optimistic we'll continue to squeeze more juice from every lemon because, e.g.:
• Algorithmic efficiency keeps improving — Google's TurboQuant recently briefly tanked memory stocks by promising to materially cut inference memory needs.
• LLM efficiency gains via mixture-of-experts and smarter inference scheduling continue to compound.
• The tokenmaxxing trend is a corporate farce that will fade.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.