Filtering by Category: Five-Minute Friday

In Case You Missed It in June 2026

Added on by Jon Krohn.

It is mighty hot in New York rn... but not nearly as spicy as the interviews on my podcast in June! ICYMI, here are the best bits of my on-air convos last month:

1. Two-time mega-bestselling O'Reilly author Chip Huyen on what's left for humans to do when the cost of building software is headed to $0.

2. Andrey Kurenkov, co-host of my favorite podcast ("Last Week in A.I.") and Founding A.I. Lead at Astrocade, on effective vibe-coding.

3. Lightning AI's VP of Infrastructure Frank Basso on what it's actually like inside an A.I. data center.

4. Gilbert Eijkelenboom on why 85% of data scientists can't communicate their work effectively... and the framework for fixing this.

5. In a role-reversal for landmark Episode #1001, the founder and original host of the SuperDataScience Podcast, Kirill Eremenko, interviewed me. In this clip, we discussed whether AGI would require something like consciousness to be realized.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

Recursive Self-Improvement

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI) is suddenly a term that's everywhere. What is RSI? How concerned should be about it? And how soon can we expect it? Here's the skinny:

WHAT IS RSI?
• The idea: An A.I. gets good enough at A.I. research to build a more capable successor, which builds an even better one, in a loop that compounds every turn.
• What we have today is *not* RSI but "A.I.-assisted coding", in which humans still set the goals and judge the results (actual RSI takes the human out of the loop, as shown in the diagram).
• RSI isn't a new concept; it's been around since at least 1965 when mathematician I.J. Good described an "intelligence explosion".

WHAT'S THE CONCERN?
RSI could unleash Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) and "the singularity", a point beyond which there could be radical abundance and radically positive outcomes for humanity... but we have no idea what will happen beyond the singularity and that's also a cause for concern (e.g., human extinction risk, Terminator-style "SkyNet", etc.).

HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO RSI?
• Anthropic reports that, as of May 2026, over 80% of code merged into its production codebase was written by Claude — up from low single digits before early 2025.
• On the hardest open-ended problems, its models' success rate jumped from under 20% in late 2025 to 76% by May.
• Think-tank METR finds the length of tasks A.I. can handle solo is now doubling roughly every four months, up from the "doubling every seven months" trend of the past few years.
• Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark puts a 60% chance on an A.I. creating its own successor, with no human involved, by the end of 2028.

REASONS TO BE SKEPTIC
• Skeptics flag two bottlenecks: compute (chips are scarce) and data (success is hard to verify outside code and math, risking "recursive drift").
• Others note the gap between today's coding agents and real RSI is wider than the hype suggests.

BOTTOM LINE
The productivity gains from coding assistants are real, accelerating rapidly and already in your hand. The closer we get to systems that improve themselves, the more it pays to keep human checkpoints, monitoring and oversight firmly in place.

Listen to the most recent episode of my podcast (Episode #1004) to hear more on all of the above, including what you can do personally to mitigate the risks of RSI if that's a way you might like to make an impact!

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

Fable 5: The Full Story from Capabilities to Drama

Added on by Jon Krohn.

The dust has settled, allowing me to provide you with all the key context you need to know on Fable 5, the most capable A.I. model ever offered to the public, and the US government forcing it off shelves three days later:

A NEW CLASS OF MODEL
• Anthropic stacks its models in tiers: Haiku (small and fast), Sonnet (the capable middle) and Opus (the powerful top). Sitting above all of them now is a "Mythos-class" tier.
• Fable 5 and its locked-down sibling Mythos 5 are the same underlying model... the only difference is the safeguards.
• Mythos 5 goes to trusted cyberdefenders with guardrails largely lifted; Fable 5 went to the public with them switched on.

WHAT IT COULD DO
• State-of-the-art on nearly every benchmark Anthropic tested... and the lead grows the longer and more complex the task (see chart).
• Stripe ran a codebase-wide migration on 50M lines of Ruby in a single day; work estimated at 2+ months for a full engineering team.
• Beat video "Pokémon FireRed" from raw screenshots alone, and got a 3x bigger memory boost than Opus on "Slay the Spire".
• Priced at $10/$50 per million input/output tokens: roughly 2x Opus 4.8, but under half the original Mythos Preview.

SAFETY BY DESIGN
• Classifiers watch three sensitive areas: cybersecurity, biology/chemistry and distillation (extracting a model to train a rival).
• Flagged requests quietly fall back to Opus 4.8 and the user is told.
• Triggers fire in under 5% of sessions. Anthropic admits it tuned conservatively, so some harmless prompts get bounced too.

THE THREE-DAY SHUTDOWN
• On Friday evening the federal government ordered Anthropic to switch off both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 worldwide, citing national security.
• The mechanism was an export-control action covering foreign nationals everywhere (including even, say, Canadian Anthropic employees living in the US!)... so broad that Anthropic pulled the model for absolutely everyone.
• The trigger was a reported jailbreak of the cyber safeguards by Amazon. Anthropic disputes its severity, calling it narrow and non-universal.

BOTTOM LINE
A premium-tier model, wrapped in deliberately cautious safeguards, pulled by its own government not long before Anthropic's reported IPO and the latest in a public battle between the firm and the federal government. Sessions now fall back to Opus 4.8. Whether Fable returns (and on what terms) depends on a fight that's far from over.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

Ten Years of the Super Data Science Podcast, with Jon, Kirill and Special Guests

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Today, we published Episode #1000 of the SuperDataScience Podcast! To celebrate, the show's original host Kirill Eremenko joined me and dozens of regular listeners on air to predict what the next 10 years of A.I. will bring.

In a bit more detail:
• We publish 104 episodes per year so Episode #1000 coincides with the show being about ten years old.
• The show was founded by Kirill Eremenko in 2016, who hosted over 400 episodes before handing me the reins in 2021.
• In a first for the show, Episode #1000 was streamed live online with our audience invited to join on air.
• Most folks interacted via chat functionality but a number of surprise guests came right onto the recording including Natalie Ziajski and Mario Pombo from the podcast team, rockstar A.I. entrepreneur Jepson Taylor, my 96-year-old grandmother and my very own pa, William Krohn.
• Kirill and I looked back on a decade of the podcast and fielded listener questions on topics such as A.I.’s biggest opportunities, the build-versus-buy dilemma, how to break into the field today, and how to stay grounded amid the relentless pace of A.I.

Thank you for support and listenership over all these years — we make this show for you and couldn't do it without you! We're excited to see what the next decade brings :)

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

In Case You Missed It in May 2026

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Well, I certainly learned a lot from the outstanding guests we had on my podcast in May. ICYMI, today's episode features the best parts of my conversations with them:

1. Rubrik's Anneka Gupta and Cal Al-Dhubaib on how, in the Mythos era, the old cybersecurity playbook of prevention and detection is no longer enough, and how A.I. agents themselves are becoming a new source of data exposure inside organizations.

2. marimo's Dr. Trevor Manz on why code notebooks have become the natural working memory for A.I. coding agents. Trevor walks me through the Marimo Pair skill, which lets you drive a notebook from your agent, collaborating with Claude Code or Codex in real time as you load, explore, and visualize your data.

3. Jazmia Henry of collide. walks me through her work as a "full-stack" foundation model builder. We cover all four stages of the process: the often unglamorous slog of data curation, building bespoke tokenizers and embeddings, model training and reinforcement learning, and the inference layer that serves it all to end users.

4. Jacob Miller and Jeremy Mumford of Pattern (and authors of the great, brand-new book "Architected Intelligence") argue that the most expensive AI mistake an organization can make is failing slowly and sticking with prototypes long past their sell-by date because the traditional software mindset says you have to. We, of course, also discuss a solution.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

AI’s Putting Recent Grads Out of Work; Here’s How to Get Hired Anyway!

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Computer science/engineering grads had an employment advantage (see chart) that, since ChatGPT's release, has disappeared. Is A.I. to blame? Here's what the data say and what new grads (or anyone!) can do about it:

THE EMPLOYMENT LANDSCAPE
• NY Fed: unemployment for recent computer-science grads (22-27) sits at 7.0%, and computer engineering at 7.8% (roughly on par with fine arts and anthropology grads!)
• Compare that to ~5.8% for recent grads overall and ~4% for the whole US workforce.
• Eighteen-year-olds are voting with their feet: US undergrad CS enrolment fell 11% in 2025; computer programming fell a stunning 26%.
• Demand is shrinking too: Handshake postings are down ~50% from their 2022 peak, and Revelio Labs data suggest entry-level software and data-analysis postings have dropped as much as 67%.

IS A.I. TO BLAME?
• "Yes" camp: A 2025 Stanford University study found employment for 22-25-year-olds in A.I.-exposed jobs dropped 13% since 2022, while older workers held steady. The Dallas Fed replicated it... and the decline comes from juniors never being hired, not layoffs.
• "Not so fast" camp: Google economists found posting declines were just as steep for senior workers and predate ChatGPT. A Fed study of 1M+ firms found "null effects." Their take: high interest rates and a post-pandemic hangover, with A.I. as a convenient scapegoat.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
1. Stop competing on raw code. The human edge is now system design, architecture and deciding what to build in the first place.

2. Pick a domain. "A.I. engineer" is a common résumé; "A.I. engineer who worked alongside a hospital team for two summer internships" is a short list.

3. Build a public portfolio. Substantive GitHub repos and a Kaggle project beat CVs sent into the void.

4. Get fluent with agentic tooling, e.g., RAG, model evaluation, multi-agent orchestration. PwC found A.I.-skilled workers earn a 56% wage premium (!!!)

5. Lean on your network. Referrals and warm intros are crushing mass (often GenAI-produced) applications in this market.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.

Tokenmaxxing vs AI Hardware Bottlenecks

Added on by Jon Krohn.

Humans (like Reinforcement Learning algos) can "reward hack": "Tokenmaxxing" being a perfect example, after employers started using "number of tokens" consumed as a proxy for developers' productivity.

Even if humans weren't engaging in this pointless time-, money- and energy-consuming behavior, however, demand for A.I. compute is so vast that everyone's scrambling to to make more available. Alas, four tricky hardware bottlenecks face us:

1. GPUs:
• NVIDIA data-center GPU lead times now run 36–52 weeks, with Blackwell chips sold out through mid-2026.
• The real choke point isn't fabrication: It's TSMC's "CoWoS" advanced packaging, which is sold out through 2026. Nvidia alone has locked up ~60% of CoWoS capacity through 2027.

2. High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM):
• Demand has quintupled since 2023, and only three companies (SK hynix, Samsung and Micron) make it.
• All three are sold out well into 2026 and new HBM factories take 18–24 months to come online.

3. CPUs:
• As workloads shift toward agentic AI, the CPU:GPU ratio jumps from ~1:12 (for GenAI-only chatbots) to 1:1.
• Intel's CFO says the server-CPU shortfall "starts with a B" — billions in unmet demand so server CPU prices are up 10–20% in just the past couple of months.

4. Electricity: Hyperscaler build-outs are now gated by grid interconnect (18–36 months) and transformer lead times.

THE BIG MISMATCH
• The top 5 hyperscalers alone (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle) are on track for ~$725B in combined 2026 capex.
• That's roughly 6x the hyperscalers' 2022 spend, with ~75% going to A.I. infrastructure.
• Hardware suppliers, however, have grown capex by only ~50%.... a 6x increase in demand met by only a 50% increase in supply is a big mismatch!

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Demand will continue to be high but I'm optimistic we'll continue to squeeze more juice from every lemon because, e.g.:
• Algorithmic efficiency keeps improving — Google's TurboQuant recently briefly tanked memory stocks by promising to materially cut inference memory needs.
• LLM efficiency gains via mixture-of-experts and smarter inference scheduling continue to compound.
• The tokenmaxxing trend is a corporate farce that will fade.

The SuperDataScience podcast is available on all major podcasting platforms, YouTube, and at SuperDataScience.com.